Author Archives: Steve Kamman

In the “Rebel Without a Cause” game of chicken, James Dean jumps.  The other guy’s jacket catches in the door and he plunges to his death (video below).  I think too many people are assuming we are James Dean… A … Continue reading →

When you have indicators point every which way like this, the “right” answer is… Don’t put too much weight on any one indicator.  Something is clearly off normal trend.  Guess from the present situation.  Don’t rely on past examples. But … Continue reading →

The current consensus on the Debt Ceiling stand-off seems to be “There will be a lot of noise and drama and then they will pass a compromise and we move on.  Just like has happened in the past.”  I see … Continue reading →

Wrote this today, figured I’d share.  A lot of people have been comfortably riding a “mega recession ahead!!!” macro call for 18 months now. The sell-by date on that bet is coming soon. If that “big recession, big spike in … Continue reading →

A friend – probably sick of hearing about inflation – actually (gasp) asked for an update on Ukraine.  So here goes. The last few 3 months would seem to support the “stalemate” view of the war.  Except for one minor … Continue reading →

I’m not pushing some bolshevik agenda here.  The mechanics do matter.  If price increases led us into inflation, then price cuts might just lead us out?  A downward spiral of price-cutting would be great for inflation, consumers, and the economy … Continue reading →

The real economy is clearly slowing.  But it may not be slowing fast enough to save Team Monetary Policy.  Says who?  The IMF.  After Hubris comes Nemesis… The IMF’s revised forecast tells us the rate-rising fiesta risks damaging the financial … Continue reading →

We live better now because Agriculture went from ~95% of the workforce in the 1800’s to about 2% today.  How did that happen (mostly)?  Labor got expensive.  The industrial revolution gave people higher-paid, more attractive options to back-breaking stoop labor. … Continue reading →

18 months into one of the fastest, steepest Fed hiking cycles in history, the market myth of an all-powerful Fed is looking pretty… mythical. A year ago, “Team Interest Rate” was predicting economic Armageddon in January 2022 whilst expecting a … Continue reading →

The market is betting the Fed will have to cur rates by September-December 2023. We don’t (yet) know if the market is pricing in a fast drop in other economic sectors.  Many commentators (and the Fed’s own projections) expect a … Continue reading →