Author Archives: Steve Kamman

Two days after Russia invaded Ukraine, I wrote “Putin is already Losing in Ukraine.”  Even back then, it was already pretty obvious.  Whatever emerged from the war, it would not be a Russian “victory.”  Putin has lost more and more … Continue reading →

As headline inflation numbers come down, the Fed is going to find it harder to justify high short-term interest rates.  Especially if most economic sectors are holding up well in the face of that moderating inflation.  Double-especially if the most … Continue reading →

Summary:  It will get super awkward if the labor market holds up too well while the CRE market starts to go into a too-visible tailspin.  The Fed will have to cut rates.  The Fed won’t want to look like it … Continue reading →

Something has definitely shifted in Ukraine.  The West has clearly decided Ukraine can and should win militarily.  We’ve seen all sorts of taboos lifted in the last few weeks.  Although maybe it is just that Ukraine is now running out … Continue reading →

Why, politically, do we insist our only economic tool must be a bludgeon?  Why ignore a whole array of more precise, more effective alternative instruments?  I’m talking about simple effectiveness here, not my personal politics.  But politics are exactly why … Continue reading →

This whole inflation episode has two competing narratives.  Only one can win.  It is looking more and more like “Team Transitory/Real Economy” is going to crush “Team Money Printing/Fed-Uber-Alles.”  The PCE inflation, consumption, and GDP numbers all point in that … Continue reading →

A friend wondered if there were any lessons from Japan’s experience of population decline. The “lesson” from Japan is that no-one has a playbook for managing decline.  Global population has been going up for so long.  So everyone has an … Continue reading →

I was reminded of a post I wrote last year by the news that China’s birth rate dropped by 45%.  As I wrote then:  “A study in the Lancet forecasts total world population will decline A LOT over the next … Continue reading →

So we all know big chunks of the US Republican Party want to stop giving a dime to Ukraine.  But we really don’t know why? It is clearly in the US national interest to weaken a dangerous, unpredictable rival (Russia) … Continue reading →

People keep bringing up the “what if Putin uses a tactical nuke?” as if that would change the situation in Ukraine.  It wouldn’t shift the military balance.  It would drastically shift the political entirely against Putin’s own interests.  Threatening to … Continue reading →