Author Archives: Steve Kamman

Has Ukraine Already Won? Kinda Sorta Yes?

Two days after Russia invaded Ukraine, I wrote “Putin is already Losing in Ukraine.”  Even back then, it was already pretty obvious.  Whatever emerged from the war, it would not be a Russian “victory.”  Putin has lost more and more … Continue reading

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Another Path to Fed Rate Cuts – “Not with a Bang But a Whimper.”

As headline inflation numbers come down, the Fed is going to find it harder to justify high short-term interest rates.  Especially if most economic sectors are holding up well in the face of that moderating inflation.  Double-especially if the most … Continue reading

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The Fed Will Cut Rates? Why? Politics. OK, When? Before The Commercial Real Estate Market Cracks…

Summary:  It will get super awkward if the labor market holds up too well while the CRE market starts to go into a too-visible tailspin.  The Fed will have to cut rates.  The Fed won’t want to look like it … Continue reading

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Why Push to Destroy The Russian Army If They Will Come to Do The Job Themselves? A New Ukraine End-Game Scenario.

Something has definitely shifted in Ukraine.  The West has clearly decided Ukraine can and should win militarily.  We’ve seen all sorts of taboos lifted in the last few weeks.  Although maybe it is just that Ukraine is now running out … Continue reading

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Shocked! Shocked to Discover a Political Agenda Behind the “Technocratic” Fed-Centric Economic Narrative

Why, politically, do we insist our only economic tool must be a bludgeon?  Why ignore a whole array of more precise, more effective alternative instruments?  I’m talking about simple effectiveness here, not my personal politics.  But politics are exactly why … Continue reading

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The Cure for High Prices is… High Prices. Team Transitory Winning After All.

This whole inflation episode has two competing narratives.  Only one can win.  It is looking more and more like “Team Transitory/Real Economy” is going to crush “Team Money Printing/Fed-Uber-Alles.”  The PCE inflation, consumption, and GDP numbers all point in that … Continue reading

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How do We Manage Major Population decline? No-One Has a Playbook…

A friend wondered if there were any lessons from Japan’s experience of population decline. The “lesson” from Japan is that no-one has a playbook for managing decline.  Global population has been going up for so long.  So everyone has an … Continue reading

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Why Deflation? Global Population (and thus Economic) Decline. How Do We Manage It? No Clue…

I was reminded of a post I wrote last year by the news that China’s birth rate dropped by 45%.  As I wrote then:  “A study in the Lancet forecasts total world population will decline A LOT over the next … Continue reading

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Why Do So Many Republicans Oppose Ukraine? Fantasy? Self-Defeating Political Short-Sightedness? A Strongman Crush? Traitorous? All of the Above?

So we all know big chunks of the US Republican Party want to stop giving a dime to Ukraine.  But we really don’t know why? It is clearly in the US national interest to weaken a dangerous, unpredictable rival (Russia) … Continue reading

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A Tactical Nuke is Just a Branding Exercise. Arguably The Most Toxic One on Earth.

People keep bringing up the “what if Putin uses a tactical nuke?” as if that would change the situation in Ukraine.  It wouldn’t shift the military balance.  It would drastically shift the political entirely against Putin’s own interests.  Threatening to … Continue reading

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