Author Archives: Steve Kamman

Why “Must” We have A Recession? The Lady Doth Protest Too Much, Methinks…

Why are so many people howling for a recession?  To quote Bloomberg columnist John Authers… Bringing inflation to heel is urgent. That could imply that the Fed has no choice but to execute the landing soon — as the alternative … Continue reading

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2024 Election – Who is the “Change” Candidate? How Will Voters Express Frustration if We Don’t Get One?

Who is the “Change” candidate in a Biden vs Trump re-match.?  My gut says neither. But US voters have pretty reliably voted for “change” since the GFC and Iraq war gutted elite credibility.   So do they force a “change” … Continue reading

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What I Got Wrong On the Debt Ceiling. Pro Wrestling Rot is Deeper than I Thought. Both Encouraging and Worrying.

I didn’t understand how far the “pro wrestling” rot had spread.  McCarthy delivered what his radical wing wanted.  The wackadoodle’s non-negotiable demand was  a stage on which to go down in glorious, oppositional defeat.  He gave them a stage to … Continue reading

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Debt Ceiling – Are We James Dean or Are We the “Other Guy?”

In the “Rebel Without a Cause” game of chicken, James Dean jumps.  The other guy’s jacket catches in the door and he plunges to his death (video below).  I think too many people are assuming we are James Dean… A … Continue reading

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Who Do You Believe? Either 68% Recession Probability (Yield Curve) Or Near-Zero (Real Economy)

When you have indicators point every which way like this, the “right” answer is… Don’t put too much weight on any one indicator.  Something is clearly off normal trend.  Guess from the present situation.  Don’t rely on past examples. But … Continue reading

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I’m Worried About A US Debt Ceiling Crisis. Can McCarthy Really Deliver The Compromise “Everyone” Expects?

The current consensus on the Debt Ceiling stand-off seems to be “There will be a lot of noise and drama and then they will pass a compromise and we move on.  Just like has happened in the past.”  I see … Continue reading

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What if the macro-economy fails to TOTALLY fall apart in the next 3 months?

Wrote this today, figured I’d share.  A lot of people have been comfortably riding a “mega recession ahead!!!” macro call for 18 months now. The sell-by date on that bet is coming soon. If that “big recession, big spike in … Continue reading

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Don’t Worry, No-One Else Noticed Russia’s Offensive Either. Now, Will Ukraine’s Luck Hold?

A friend – probably sick of hearing about inflation – actually (gasp) asked for an update on Ukraine.  So here goes. The last few 3 months would seem to support the “stalemate” view of the war.  Except for one minor … Continue reading

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Someone Just Farted at The Dinner Party – “US COVID-19 inflation is predominantly a sellers’ inflation [by] firms with market power to hike prices…”

I’m not pushing some bolshevik agenda here.  The mechanics do matter.  If price increases led us into inflation, then price cuts might just lead us out?  A downward spiral of price-cutting would be great for inflation, consumers, and the economy … Continue reading

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IMF Says (Politely) The Monetary-Policy-Only Experiment is Failing… Hubris/Nemesis, Sampson, and The Battle of Isandlwana.

The real economy is clearly slowing.  But it may not be slowing fast enough to save Team Monetary Policy.  Says who?  The IMF.  After Hubris comes Nemesis… The IMF’s revised forecast tells us the rate-rising fiesta risks damaging the financial … Continue reading

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