Who Do You Believe? Either 68% Recession Probability (Yield Curve) Or Near-Zero (Real Economy)

When you have indicators point every which way like this, the “right” answer is…

Don’t put too much weight on any one indicator.  Something is clearly off normal trend.  Guess from the present situation.  Don’t rely on past examples.

But most people don’t look farther than the yield curve, which is definitely predicting a recession.

On the other hand, Labor markets and another “real economy” indicator are showing no reason to worry.

So tread carefully.  Pasting in links below.  Data charts sometimes come in wonky.

The Yield Curve (which is the only thing most investors watch) is screaming “68% chance of a recession.” Although its last “prediction” was really the COVID recession.  I have a lot of trouble believing the bond market foresaw COVD.  But maybe we were fated to have one without COVID?  https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq#/interactive

The “Sahm Rule” says “no recession ahead”  This is based on changes in unemployment with an even better track record than the yield curve  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT

Nothing showing on the “Smoothed Recession Probabilities” Indicator ” Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N

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