Category Archives: Uncategorized

A friend asked me about recent US noises about Ukraine and Russia coming to a negotiated solution.  I figured I’d write it out here.  So what does this tell us? We are NOT going to see an “appeasement” peace.  A … Continue reading →

We aren’t going through an “inflation” so much as a collective impoverishment. Prices are going up.  The October CPI was 8.11%. Wages are not keeping pace with prices.  Wages in September grew 6.3%, slowing down after a peak of 6.7% … Continue reading →

Putin has just doubled down on his “madman” negotiating strategy.  The problem – for Putin especially – is that strategy gives him low odds for a face-saving negotiated outcome.  In bar fight terms, the madman eventually ends up getting kicked … Continue reading →

I keep running into a lazy consensus around Ukraine – a long, grinding war prosecuted by implacable, iron-fisted Putin pressing crushing energy sanctions until…? The end game is usually hand-waving about “negotiations” that largely assumes Ukrainian capitulation.  If those ill-examined … Continue reading →

Ukraine will end up with a “frozen conflict” one way or the other.  The only question is how frozen for how long?   Framed that way, the Ukraine’s diplomatic/political end game is obvious.  A conflict frozen long enough to outlast … Continue reading →

Unfilled jobs – the “vacancy rate” – has gotten a lot of attention in the inflation debate. But that debate ignores an obvious discontinuity in the underlying data series. The data have definitely changed drastically around COVID. Some of that … Continue reading →

Why am I so focused on Ukraine?  Partly because it is fascinating.  But more because it is so important to a lot of really important trends. If the cut-off Russian forces don’t hold around Kherson, the shock waves of that … Continue reading →

A friend asked me to update my Ukraine thoughts yesterday.  It turned out I had a lot to think through, so here goes with my apologies.  A lot of people believe that time is on Putin’s side.  That argument is … Continue reading →

A lot of commentary assumes Labor costs is the only variable in the “inflation” equation. We “must” have unemployment to control labor costs!!!!  This is an article of faith for your typical Wall Street Journal reader. But price is set … Continue reading →

The Fed isn’t know for telling simple stories in plain English, but Fed Governors Mary Daly and Esther George are doing just that.  Their narratives contradict the dominant narrative of the business media/pundit complex.  Maybe they are trying to tell … Continue reading →