Category Archives: Uncategorized

Could Be a Hotter Election Than Many Expect.  Making the Comfortable Uncomfortable…

Biden may run a more scrappy campaign than people expect.  Reflecting on the State of the Union and also this Biden ad (note the portrayals of Trump and make sure you watch beyond  “I approved this message”). Biden is (as … Continue reading

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Made In China – Goods Deflation. Also a Low Neutral Interest Rate?

Adam Tooze piece here inspired me to do a little blogging.  See chart below.  All that Chinese industrial lending = goods deflation.  China is (still) trying to export its way to prosperity. This will be a persistent deflationary force until … Continue reading

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Will Europe Step Up in Ukraine if the US Steps Back? It Might Do The Right Thing (For Once) and Emerge Transformed (for the Better).

None of the below is a prediction.  It is simply a speculation.  I’m not foolish enough to “predict” the EU would do the right and courageous thing.  But they could always surprise us… There hasn’t been much to say about … Continue reading

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Early Rate Cuts? Fed’s Powell is a Republican, But is He Pro Trump? My Guess is No…

In all the commentary around what the Fed will or won’t do, no-one wants to mention that elephant over there in the corner. Does Fed Chair Powell want another 4 years of Donald Trump?  Or is he on Team “we’ll … Continue reading

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Boom Times Ahead? Not Sure I Believe It. But That’s a Simple(st) Economic Explanation for Current Yield Numbers.

So we have strong GDP growth, rising real rates, and falling inflation.  What is the SIMPLEST explanation for that? High real rates = “strong expected demand for financing” = “strong expected economic growth (driving demand for capital, labor, etc…).”  I’m … Continue reading

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What if Xi Jinping just isn’t that competent? Great Read from 2021 that has Aged Well.

The grinding and creaking of structural metal fatigue just keep getting louder behind the Chinese facade.  This 2021 post (by a respected econ blogger) has aged very well. Worth a read.  Beyond “what he said” I’d add… There is an … Continue reading

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Fiscal Stimulus Is/Was More Powerful Than Many Think.

Is this why the stock market refuses to go down? Also why the economy is seemingly so indifferent to the Fed’s rate-raising campaign? It is probably at least part of the puzzle. Paper is a very quick read – by … Continue reading

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Ukraine Hasn’t Gotten Lucky… Yet. Prigozhin Got at Little TOO Lucky

Thoughts on Ukraine. WTF was going on with Prigozhin and the whole Wagner coup/mutiny/whatever-it-was?  I’ve avoided writing about this because I simply could not figure it out. Nor could anyone else.* We do know this – Prygozhin suffered a “catastrophic … Continue reading

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Is the Emperor Really Clothed? The Facts Are Pretty Skimpy…

Working on a Ukraine rant, but noting a few “Fed” source pieces here from people more qualified than I am.  They also keep looking in vain for fact-based evidence to support the dominant Fed/markets/inflation/liquidity narrative. They don’t replace that simple, … Continue reading

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The 1990’s Weren’t a Terrible Decade… Maybe We Aren’t Facing an Inflationary (or Deflationary) Bust? Just Sayin’

Two Fed Charts to ponder.  Does today’s data rhyme with the… …(cue scary music here) terrible horrible 70’s when inflationary blight stalked the land? …(cue “I want my MTV…”) the 1990’s ?   The 1990’s were a pretty good decade. Today’s … Continue reading

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