Category Archives: Uncategorized

I’ve re-written and delayed this piece for a while. Why? Partly I got busy. Mostly because “lessons learned“ exercises depend on being right about where you went wrong. I’m not trying to make excuses. I’m trying to avoid making the … Continue reading →

I’m as hopeful on the Macro outlook as I’ve been in a long time.  Nursing hope we might actually be able to grow/inflate our way out of the current macro mess we are in.  That implies an overheating economy for … Continue reading →

Pelosi is on the verge of a stunning victory.  She has set a 48 hour deadline for a stimulus package “before the election.”  Trump has signaled openness to a package larger that $1.8 Billion.  She could find herself sending a … Continue reading →

Markets are a-twitter about the fact that Pelosi is back to talking to Mnuchin about a stimulus plan.  I’d still be it ends with no deal.  So why are we seeing this latest and probably final round of drama?  It … Continue reading →

Everyone knows “a tsunami of Fed liquidity” been driving markets upwards since March.  So why do I keep asserting the Fed’s recent stimulus had little real-world effect (ignoring a powerful placebo effect? (see post here)  Because that Liquidity Tsunami is … Continue reading →

We’re in no danger of fire, but we are trapped in the house with the air filter going full blast.  If you want to understand how bad it is, take a look at this air quality map (with smoke plumes … Continue reading →

The news keeps running ahead of this post!  Mitch McConnell has confirmed a new stimulus package isn’t likely (see full explanatory quote at the bottom of this post).  Read on for how and why we got here… Absent new stimulus, … Continue reading →

Right after I wrote my post saying I didn’t expect stimulus, news broke that suggests Pelosi and Mnuchin don’t see it either.  So I’m noting that here.  More evidence we’re headed towards a major Policy Failure (Econ speak for a … Continue reading →

Investors seem to be assuming we can get a stimulus without a crash.  It may be that we need a market crash to get a stimulus.  People (and the market) are assuming additional stimulus (unemployment checks and PPP).  I am … Continue reading →

The Fed has always been seen as Republican-leaning player in politics.  After all, the Fed’s main job is to look after the best interests of regulate the banks.  But it occurred to me that, right here and now, Powell has … Continue reading →