Category Archives: Uncategorized

The grinding and creaking of structural metal fatigue just keep getting louder behind the Chinese facade.  This 2021 post (by a respected econ blogger) has aged very well. Worth a read.  Beyond “what he said” I’d add… There is an … Continue reading →

Is this why the stock market refuses to go down? Also why the economy is seemingly so indifferent to the Fed’s rate-raising campaign? It is probably at least part of the puzzle. Paper is a very quick read – by … Continue reading →

Thoughts on Ukraine. WTF was going on with Prigozhin and the whole Wagner coup/mutiny/whatever-it-was?  I’ve avoided writing about this because I simply could not figure it out. Nor could anyone else.* We do know this – Prygozhin suffered a “catastrophic … Continue reading →

Working on a Ukraine rant, but noting a few “Fed” source pieces here from people more qualified than I am.  They also keep looking in vain for fact-based evidence to support the dominant Fed/markets/inflation/liquidity narrative. They don’t replace that simple, … Continue reading →

Two Fed Charts to ponder.  Does today’s data rhyme with the… …(cue scary music here) terrible horrible 70’s when inflationary blight stalked the land? …(cue “I want my MTV…”) the 1990’s ?   The 1990’s were a pretty good decade. Today’s … Continue reading →

If the data suggest price increases are driving inflation, the inflation “debate” ought to center on… prices not wages.  Especially if the data also suggest wages are not driving inflation (very much).  The one thing we should NOT do?  Pretend … Continue reading →

In Sunday School Macroeconomics 101, they tell a story about the Fed. When Uncle Fed cuts rates, it stimulates investment and the economy goes boom!  When Uncle Fed raises rates, investment struggles and the economy goes bust.  So if you … Continue reading →

Why are so many people howling for a recession?  To quote Bloomberg columnist John Authers… Bringing inflation to heel is urgent. That could imply that the Fed has no choice but to execute the landing soon — as the alternative … Continue reading →

Who is the “Change” candidate in a Biden vs Trump re-match.?  My gut says neither. But US voters have pretty reliably voted for “change” since the GFC and Iraq war gutted elite credibility.   So do they force a “change” … Continue reading →

I didn’t understand how far the “pro wrestling” rot had spread.  McCarthy delivered what his radical wing wanted.  The wackadoodle’s non-negotiable demand was  a stage on which to go down in glorious, oppositional defeat.  He gave them a stage to … Continue reading →