Category Archives: Uncategorized

Why last week’s tariff ruling may prove durable. Conservative Legal Scholars Leading the Attack.

Conservative Justices are more small-C conservative than MAGA conservative.  Handing over the power to declare across the board tax hikes under a paper-thin “emergency” declaration is a pretty obvious slippery slope.  Not just legal scholars. I’d guess the “friend of … Continue reading

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Read this As Simply Strategy: “Anti-oligarchy politics offers a direct contrast with Trump not just on economic matters — but on cultural terms.”

Read this simply as a political strategy blueprint for “how to win.”  Avoid getting wrapped up in whether you agree or not.  It is a worryingly solid strategy.  What happens if a left-wing populist version of Trump figures this out?  … Continue reading

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“They are afraid above all of the weak…”

The passage below – written during WW2 – struck a chord in understanding some peoples’ driving motive in the present moment;  Fear. “They [the Germans] are afraid,” I replied, “they are afraid of everything and everybody; they kill and destroy … Continue reading

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Don’t Piss Off the Ents… Trump’s Nemesis May Be “You Break It, You Own It.”

TLDR:  A simplified guess as to why/how Trump latched onto tariffs this go-around.  He wanted to swing a big stick and he found one… No 3D chess here.  That ‘a convenient hoo to hang a hubris/nemesis narrative on.  If his … Continue reading

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If Tariff Anger Coalesces and Focuses, It Could Re-Set the Political Chessboard. More Apprehensive than Excited.

Back to blogging.  Helps me organize my thoughts.  Your replies and comments always welcome. 97% of strollers and 87% of car seats are made in China.  Not optional purchases.  Prices are already up 30% reportedly.  What if they go fully … Continue reading

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“The fewer people vote, the more likely Democrats are to win.” Really. State Abortion-Rights Initiatives Skew That Math Further.

I wrote most of this before Biden dropped out.  Revised lightly.  Biden’s decision clears the table, shuffles the cards, and deals out new hands.  But it really doesn’t change the race.  It was and still is about Trump and turnout. … Continue reading

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Could Be a Hotter Election Than Many Expect.  Making the Comfortable Uncomfortable…

Biden may run a more scrappy campaign than people expect.  Reflecting on the State of the Union and also this Biden ad (note the portrayals of Trump and make sure you watch beyond  “I approved this message”). Biden is (as … Continue reading

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Made In China – Goods Deflation. Also a Low Neutral Interest Rate?

Adam Tooze piece here inspired me to do a little blogging.  See chart below.  All that Chinese industrial lending = goods deflation.  China is (still) trying to export its way to prosperity. This will be a persistent deflationary force until … Continue reading

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Will Europe Step Up in Ukraine if the US Steps Back? It Might Do The Right Thing (For Once) and Emerge Transformed (for the Better).

None of the below is a prediction.  It is simply a speculation.  I’m not foolish enough to “predict” the EU would do the right and courageous thing.  But they could always surprise us… There hasn’t been much to say about … Continue reading

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Early Rate Cuts? Fed’s Powell is a Republican, But is He Pro Trump? My Guess is No…

In all the commentary around what the Fed will or won’t do, no-one wants to mention that elephant over there in the corner. Does Fed Chair Powell want another 4 years of Donald Trump?  Or is he on Team “we’ll … Continue reading

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