Category Archives: Uncategorized

The Fed isn’t know for telling simple stories in plain English, but Fed Governors Mary Daly and Esther George are doing just that.  Their narratives contradict the dominant narrative of the business media/pundit complex.  Maybe they are trying to tell … Continue reading →

Take a moment to read the short, surprisingly clear speech by Fed Governor Esther George July 12th.  It contains a warning to her fellow Fed Governors.  She thinks the current Fed consensus risks a major policy error by overly hasty … Continue reading →

“If only we had something more precise!“ Says surgeon holding a rusty kitchen knife over a tray full of scalpels…   How “should” we slow demand in an overheating economy?  Congress should be (temporarily) raising taxes.  The Fed’s rate policies … Continue reading →

The consensus forecast on the Ukraine war seems be for grinding, low-level conflict.  That seems unlikely.  It is probably mostly or totally over by Winter. That is a better outlook than forecasters have assumed.  It might be the outlook markets … Continue reading →

Why will the Ukraine war end in a Russian defeat?  Because Russia has already lost.  Winning a war means choosing when to end the fighting and on what terms.  Putin cannot end the conflict on his terms.  He lost that … Continue reading →

We are currently living with a Schrödinger’s cat economy.  It exists in a state of quantum uncertainty.  It won’t last forever, but right now we can’t quite see if we are alive or dead. In quantum mechanics, Schrödinger’s cat is … Continue reading →

Putin is betting on Western resolve collapsing before his military collapses.  I don’t think he is going to win that bet. We’ve been through a weird period where Russia and the media re-narrated capturing a 2nd tier regional city (Severdonetsk) … Continue reading →

The US (and Ukrainian) strategy now seems to be “bleed the Russians white.”  Not in terms of manpower (impossible) but equipment (already well on the way to being done). There hasn’t been much change on the ground lately in Ukraine.  … Continue reading →

A study in the Lancet forecasts total world population will decline A LOT over the next 70 years.  China’s population, for example. could drop by half.  700 million fewer people than their peak population year in 2024.  As the study … Continue reading →

Putin’s Army has one big push left.  Maybe. If that fails, his forces are useless as an effective attacking force.  They are already too small and degraded to effectively occupy much territory.  Leaving Putin where?  In a bad place.  Which … Continue reading →