Category Archives: Uncategorized

Pelosi’s 48 Hour Stimulus Deadline – Rounding Out The Circular Firing Squad?

Pelosi is on the verge of a stunning victory.  She has set a 48 hour deadline for a stimulus package “before the election.”  Trump has signaled openness to a package larger that $1.8 Billion.  She could find herself sending a … Continue reading

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3/4 of a Shit Sandwich is Still a Shit Sandwich. Stimulus (Still) Looks Unlikely.   

Markets are a-twitter about the fact that Pelosi is back to talking to Mnuchin about a stimulus plan.  I’d still be it ends with no deal.  So why are we seeing this latest and probably final round of drama?  It … Continue reading

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90% of The Fed’s “Stimulus” Never Left the Building. $109B Did Hit Markets Directly. That is More Ripple Than Tsunami.

Everyone knows “a tsunami of Fed liquidity” been driving markets upwards since March.  So why do I keep asserting the Fed’s recent stimulus had little real-world effect (ignoring a powerful placebo effect? (see post here)  Because that Liquidity Tsunami is … Continue reading

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The Fed and West Coast Wildfires. More of a Link Than You Might Think.

We’re in no danger of fire, but we are trapped in the house with the air filter going full blast.  If you want to understand how bad it is, take a look at this air quality map (with smoke plumes … Continue reading

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Pelosi Called The Bluff In the Republican’s Game of Chicken. We’re Going Off The Cliff.

The news keeps running ahead of this post!  Mitch McConnell has confirmed a new stimulus package isn’t likely (see full explanatory quote at the bottom of this post).  Read on for how and why we got here… Absent new stimulus, … Continue reading

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Pelosi and The White House Don’t Expect a Stimulus Deal Anytime Soon…

Right after I wrote my post saying I didn’t expect stimulus, news broke that suggests Pelosi and Mnuchin don’t see it either.  So I’m noting that here.  More evidence we’re headed towards a major Policy Failure (Econ speak for a … Continue reading

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Stimulus Looks Pretty Unlikely. Unless You Pencil in a Market Crash First…

Investors seem to be assuming we can get a stimulus without a crash.  It may be that we need a market crash to get a stimulus.  People (and the market) are assuming additional stimulus (unemployment checks and PPP).  I am … Continue reading

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Does the Fed Want the Democrats to Win? Might They Act to Make that Happen? Fun With Conspiracy Theories…

The Fed has always been seen as Republican-leaning player in politics.  After all, the Fed’s main job is to look after the best interests of regulate the banks.  But it occurred to me that, right here and now, Powell has … Continue reading

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The Bezzle. Either Inflate By $7-$18 Trillion or Bonfire Away $4-$8 Trillion of Paper Wealth. Is This What Velocity is Telling Us?

I am hoping for push-back here, so please poke holes!  Question my assumptions!  Help me think this through! Looking at the past 20 years, it is clear we have an increasingly fat jockey (wealth) riding a faltering horse (the real … Continue reading

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Book Recommendations

Good fortune is good in-laws 🙂  I’ve had a little more time to read in the last few months (courtesy of the aforementioned in-laws).  I figured I’d share.  Forgive any typos below – this small laptop keyboard and my machine … Continue reading

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