Monthly Archives: March 2022

The below is not a prediction.  Nor is it a recommendation.  My only real tool for stocks and markets is to ask Is it Getting Better or Getting Worse?  IF it is Getting Better, you buy.  If it is Getting … Continue reading →

I’m seeing a lot of grand predictions about a new Cold War between the US and China.  There is definitely one coming eventually.  But now?  Maybe China is that dumb.  But probably not.   If they aren’t dumb, the want … Continue reading →

If China is rational, they will start pushing Russia to end the war in Ukraine sooner vs later.  This is our single best hope for ending the war quickly.  OK, hope is not a strategy.  But “hope” is not why … Continue reading →

It occurred to me (after a conversation with a friend today) that looking for signs of Russian military collapse might come across as wishful thinking.  Perhaps I’m letting sentimental attachment to the Ukrainian cause bias me?   Except that isn’t how … Continue reading →

Widespread hope for a negotiated peace in Ukraine looks misplaced.  Most evidence suggests Putin will fight on until the army or economy (or both) collapse.  We can hope collapse comes soon.  The risk is it doesn’t. The US has likely … Continue reading →

At this point, we can tentatively conclude that China is not going to offer that military support Russia asked for last week.  This is a huge win.  Russia is evidently running low on supplies both fancy (missiles) and mundane (rations).  … Continue reading →

Why is Putin firing missiles at Western Ukraine? He is so confident in victory he can afford to use up his (diminishing) stocks of super expensive, hard to replace long-range missiles on splashy, high profile, but militarily ineffective pinprick attacks. … Continue reading →

Update – Apparently the COSC piece has been censored off social media (Weibo) in China.  That means it is not officially “approved.”  It does not necessarily mean it is “officially disagreed with.”  The Chinese don’t like to wash dirty laundry … Continue reading →

What Putin “wants” doesn’t matter.  What can he actually “do?” As of now, Putin has already lost Russia’s “World Power” status.  He has proven Russia is a paper tiger.  His smaller neighbors will still fear Russia.  No-one else will give … Continue reading →

If Russia escalates, EU politicians can escalate back by banning oil/gas imports (see below).  There is economic space for sanctions escalation if the political will is there.  The impact on Russia would be immediate and likely catastrophic. Hard logic says … Continue reading →