Monthly Archives: April 2023

What if the macro-economy fails to TOTALLY fall apart in the next 3 months?

Posted on April 28, 2023 by Steve Kamman

Wrote this today, figured I’d share.  A lot of people have been comfortably riding a “mega recession ahead!!!” macro call for 18 months now. The sell-by date on that bet is coming soon. If that “big recession, big spike in … Continue reading →

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Don’t Worry, No-One Else Noticed Russia’s Offensive Either. Now, Will Ukraine’s Luck Hold?

Posted on April 19, 2023 by Steve Kamman

A friend – probably sick of hearing about inflation – actually (gasp) asked for an update on Ukraine.  So here goes. The last few 3 months would seem to support the “stalemate” view of the war.  Except for one minor … Continue reading →

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Someone Just Farted at The Dinner Party – “US COVID-19 inflation is predominantly a sellers’ inflation [by] firms with market power to hike prices…”

Posted on April 17, 2023 by Steve Kamman

I’m not pushing some bolshevik agenda here.  The mechanics do matter.  If price increases led us into inflation, then price cuts might just lead us out?  A downward spiral of price-cutting would be great for inflation, consumers, and the economy … Continue reading →

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IMF Says (Politely) The Monetary-Policy-Only Experiment is Failing… Hubris/Nemesis, Sampson, and The Battle of Isandlwana.

Posted on April 15, 2023 by Steve Kamman

The real economy is clearly slowing.  But it may not be slowing fast enough to save Team Monetary Policy.  Says who?  The IMF.  After Hubris comes Nemesis… The IMF’s revised forecast tells us the rate-rising fiesta risks damaging the financial … Continue reading →

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Higher Labor Costs Drive… Productivity Gains! Which Create Wealth. Inflation Can Do Good. IF You Let the Free Market Do Its Work.

Posted on April 12, 2023 by Steve Kamman

We live better now because Agriculture went from ~95% of the workforce in the 1800’s to about 2% today.  How did that happen (mostly)?  Labor got expensive.  The industrial revolution gave people higher-paid, more attractive options to back-breaking stoop labor. … Continue reading →

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The Market Myth of an All-Powerful Fed is Looking Pretty… Mythical.

Posted on April 3, 2023 by Steve Kamman

18 months into one of the fastest, steepest Fed hiking cycles in history, the market myth of an all-powerful Fed is looking pretty… mythical. A year ago, “Team Interest Rate” was predicting economic Armageddon in January 2022 whilst expecting a … Continue reading →

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