Monthly Archives: September 2020

3/4 of a Shit Sandwich is Still a Shit Sandwich. Stimulus (Still) Looks Unlikely.   

Markets are a-twitter about the fact that Pelosi is back to talking to Mnuchin about a stimulus plan.  I’d still be it ends with no deal.  So why are we seeing this latest and probably final round of drama?  It … Continue reading

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90% of The Fed’s “Stimulus” Never Left the Building. $109B Did Hit Markets Directly. That is More Ripple Than Tsunami.

Everyone knows “a tsunami of Fed liquidity” been driving markets upwards since March.  So why do I keep asserting the Fed’s recent stimulus had little real-world effect (ignoring a powerful placebo effect? (see post here)  Because that Liquidity Tsunami is … Continue reading

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The Fed and West Coast Wildfires. More of a Link Than You Might Think.

We’re in no danger of fire, but we are trapped in the house with the air filter going full blast.  If you want to understand how bad it is, take a look at this air quality map (with smoke plumes … Continue reading

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Pelosi Called The Bluff In the Republican’s Game of Chicken. We’re Going Off The Cliff.

The news keeps running ahead of this post!  Mitch McConnell has confirmed a new stimulus package isn’t likely (see full explanatory quote at the bottom of this post).  Read on for how and why we got here… Absent new stimulus, … Continue reading

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Pelosi and The White House Don’t Expect a Stimulus Deal Anytime Soon…

Right after I wrote my post saying I didn’t expect stimulus, news broke that suggests Pelosi and Mnuchin don’t see it either.  So I’m noting that here.  More evidence we’re headed towards a major Policy Failure (Econ speak for a … Continue reading

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Stimulus Looks Pretty Unlikely. Unless You Pencil in a Market Crash First…

Investors seem to be assuming we can get a stimulus without a crash.  It may be that we need a market crash to get a stimulus.  People (and the market) are assuming additional stimulus (unemployment checks and PPP).  I am … Continue reading

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