Monthly Archives: January 2023

Shocked! Shocked to Discover a Political Agenda Behind the “Technocratic” Fed-Centric Economic Narrative

Why, politically, do we insist our only economic tool must be a bludgeon?  Why ignore a whole array of more precise, more effective alternative instruments?  I’m talking about simple effectiveness here, not my personal politics.  But politics are exactly why … Continue reading

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The Cure for High Prices is… High Prices. Team Transitory Winning After All.

This whole inflation episode has two competing narratives.  Only one can win.  It is looking more and more like “Team Transitory/Real Economy” is going to crush “Team Money Printing/Fed-Uber-Alles.”  The PCE inflation, consumption, and GDP numbers all point in that … Continue reading

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How do We Manage Major Population decline? No-One Has a Playbook…

A friend wondered if there were any lessons from Japan’s experience of population decline. The “lesson” from Japan is that no-one has a playbook for managing decline.  Global population has been going up for so long.  So everyone has an … Continue reading

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Why Deflation? Global Population (and thus Economic) Decline. How Do We Manage It? No Clue…

I was reminded of a post I wrote last year by the news that China’s birth rate dropped by 45%.  As I wrote then:  “A study in the Lancet forecasts total world population will decline A LOT over the next … Continue reading

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Why Do So Many Republicans Oppose Ukraine? Fantasy? Self-Defeating Political Short-Sightedness? A Strongman Crush? Traitorous? All of the Above?

So we all know big chunks of the US Republican Party want to stop giving a dime to Ukraine.  But we really don’t know why? It is clearly in the US national interest to weaken a dangerous, unpredictable rival (Russia) … Continue reading

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A Tactical Nuke is Just a Branding Exercise. Arguably The Most Toxic One on Earth.

People keep bringing up the “what if Putin uses a tactical nuke?” as if that would change the situation in Ukraine.  It wouldn’t shift the military balance.  It would drastically shift the political entirely against Putin’s own interests.  Threatening to … Continue reading

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A Ukraine Stalemate is Possible, But Russian Defeat Is More Likely. Zugzwang isn’t a Stalemate.

We likely get a decisive outcome in Ukraine in the first half of 2022.  This is probably the biggest economic/political “surprise that shouldn’t be one” in store for 2023.  A lot of people seem to be assuming a “continuing stalemate.”  … Continue reading

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Why is Labor the Only “Acceptable” Variable In the Economy? Because We Can’t Talk About Profits… The Fight Club of Economics…

The first rule of Fight Club is: you do not talk about Fight Club. Reading the financial press and the freaking New York Times, you would think the only variable in the inflation equation is labor.  “We must see unemployment … Continue reading

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