Author Archives: Steve Kamman

Discretionary Retail Dynamics Will Look Like 1st Class Carriages on The Paris Metro – Less Crowded and More Expensive.

Summary:  Facing a grinding, random virus threat, people will self-regulate to keep crowd density at “comfortable” levels.  Meaning sparse retail traffic.  Meaning anemic economic activity.  Continuing until an effective vaccine has been widely administered (not just invented). The Virus Will … Continue reading

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An Early Vaccine Probably Keeps Us In an Economic Deep Freeze.

We saw a burst of hope on Monday around Modena’s vaccine being ready in volume by early 2021.  That news will change people’s individual economic calculus.  The collective impact of those individual choices probably keeps the economy limping along in … Continue reading

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Why Aren’t People Connecting “No 2nd Wave of Cases” With “No Economic Re-Start?”

I keep seeing line graphs trumpeting “no coronavirus case re-acceleration yet!!!”  This is often connected to some sort of positive economic outlook or commentary. That makes no sense. The absence of a case rise tells us one thing.  People are … Continue reading

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Heading Out Across America

I am setting out on a drive across the USA to Virginia to visit the in-laws.  Maintaining our quarantine bubble in a 19 foot Sprinter RV that a friend was generous (and crazy) enough to lend us.  With a 5 … Continue reading

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COVID and US Decline Vs China and Etc….

We’ve all seen the “USA is in Global Decline Versus China” pieces.  Now mostly with a COVID spin on them.  I wrote this up as a strawman counter-argument.  I’m not entirely sure I believe this argument, but figured I’d share … Continue reading

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The Worst of Both Worlds? America Likely Choosing ~2 Million Dead AND Huge Economic Losses.

Stripped of euphemism, America has pretty clearly made a choice.  To “save the wealth (ahem) “the economy!” at the expense of “a few million dead.”  Chasing the possible chimera of herd immunity. The problem is that is a false choice.  … Continue reading

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Is Capitalism Is Coming for the Capitalists? 81% of Americans Seem To Think So.

There are three basic inputs to any economy.  Land, Labor, and Capital.  This crisis is a massive economic shock.  So who takes the hit?  Land?  Labor?  Capital?  That is the un-stated question driving the whole “re-start the economy” debate. 81% … Continue reading

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When Do You Think Disney World Re-Opens? An Economic Reality Check.

I keep running into variations on the “quick in and out” economic scenario.  Most disturbingly among professional investors and other people who should know better.  Per prior posts, I think this reflects a consensus that hasn’t moved past the “Denial” … Continue reading

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“Starve the Beast!” Comes Home to Roost. But Who Will They Blame?

I did a “starve the beast” post from a few weeks ago. “We starved the beast.  And suddenly we find we need it.  But no amount of whipping is going to get it moving any faster than the starved, weak, … Continue reading

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Stages of Grief. We’ve Hit “Bargaining” On the Virus. Only at “Denial” On the Economic Impact.

To date, I’ve seen far too much amateur epidemiology and surprisingly little economic analysis around Coronavirus.  Even the econ blogs I follow have fallen victim to this disease (armchair virology, not Coronavirus).  In doing so, they have also fallen strangely … Continue reading

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