Author Archives: Steve Kamman

Will Europe Step Up in Ukraine if the US Steps Back? It Might Do The Right Thing (For Once) and Emerge Transformed (for the Better).

None of the below is a prediction.  It is simply a speculation.  I’m not foolish enough to “predict” the EU would do the right and courageous thing.  But they could always surprise us… There hasn’t been much to say about … Continue reading

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Early Rate Cuts? Fed’s Powell is a Republican, But is He Pro Trump? My Guess is No…

In all the commentary around what the Fed will or won’t do, no-one wants to mention that elephant over there in the corner. Does Fed Chair Powell want another 4 years of Donald Trump?  Or is he on Team “we’ll … Continue reading

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Boom Times Ahead? Not Sure I Believe It. But That’s a Simple(st) Economic Explanation for Current Yield Numbers.

So we have strong GDP growth, rising real rates, and falling inflation.  What is the SIMPLEST explanation for that? High real rates = “strong expected demand for financing” = “strong expected economic growth (driving demand for capital, labor, etc…).”  I’m … Continue reading

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What if Xi Jinping just isn’t that competent? Great Read from 2021 that has Aged Well.

The grinding and creaking of structural metal fatigue just keep getting louder behind the Chinese facade.  This 2021 post (by a respected econ blogger) has aged very well. Worth a read.  Beyond “what he said” I’d add… There is an … Continue reading

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Fiscal Stimulus Is/Was More Powerful Than Many Think.

Is this why the stock market refuses to go down? Also why the economy is seemingly so indifferent to the Fed’s rate-raising campaign? It is probably at least part of the puzzle. Paper is a very quick read – by … Continue reading

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Ukraine Hasn’t Gotten Lucky… Yet. Prigozhin Got at Little TOO Lucky

Thoughts on Ukraine. WTF was going on with Prigozhin and the whole Wagner coup/mutiny/whatever-it-was?  I’ve avoided writing about this because I simply could not figure it out. Nor could anyone else.* We do know this – Prygozhin suffered a “catastrophic … Continue reading

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Is the Emperor Really Clothed? The Facts Are Pretty Skimpy…

Working on a Ukraine rant, but noting a few “Fed” source pieces here from people more qualified than I am.  They also keep looking in vain for fact-based evidence to support the dominant Fed/markets/inflation/liquidity narrative. They don’t replace that simple, … Continue reading

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The 1990’s Weren’t a Terrible Decade… Maybe We Aren’t Facing an Inflationary (or Deflationary) Bust? Just Sayin’

Two Fed Charts to ponder.  Does today’s data rhyme with the… …(cue scary music here) terrible horrible 70’s when inflationary blight stalked the land? …(cue “I want my MTV…”) the 1990’s ?   The 1990’s were a pretty good decade. Today’s … Continue reading

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Where’s the Wage-Price Spiral in This Chart? Maybe a Price-Wage Spiral? Or Just Not Much Linkage At All…

If the data suggest price increases are driving inflation, the inflation “debate” ought to center on… prices not wages.  Especially if the data also suggest wages are not driving inflation (very much).  The one thing we should NOT do?  Pretend … Continue reading

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If The Fed Drives Investment Decisions, Why Don’t We See It In the Data…?

In Sunday School Macroeconomics 101, they tell a story about the Fed. When Uncle Fed cuts rates, it stimulates investment and the economy goes boom!  When Uncle Fed raises rates, investment struggles and the economy goes bust.  So if you … Continue reading

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