Author Archives: Steve Kamman

Bleeding Russia White. Bad News? We’re at War With Russia. Good News? They Can’t Keep it Up Much Longer.

The US (and Ukrainian) strategy now seems to be “bleed the Russians white.”  Not in terms of manpower (impossible) but equipment (already well on the way to being done). There hasn’t been much change on the ground lately in Ukraine.  … Continue reading

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We are All Japan?  Especially China? World Population DOWN by 2100? China’s Population Cut in Half?

A study in the Lancet forecasts total world population will decline A LOT over the next 70 years.  China’s population, for example. could drop by half.  700 million fewer people than their peak population year in 2024.  As the study … Continue reading

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Putin Likely Has One Big Push Before Military Collapse. Consensus For a Long, Grinding War Doesn’t Reflect Reality on the Ground.

Putin’s Army has one big push left.  Maybe. If that fails, his forces are useless as an effective attacking force.  They are already too small and degraded to effectively occupy much territory.  Leaving Putin where?  In a bad place.  Which … Continue reading

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Why are Markets Up? Because the Outlook is Getting Better. Actually Its Pretty Good.

The below is not a prediction.  Nor is it a recommendation.  My only real tool for stocks and markets is to ask Is it Getting Better or Getting Worse?  IF it is Getting Better, you buy.  If it is Getting … Continue reading

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China Wants to Win Its Cold War 2.0. It Knows Why Russia Lost. Why It Should Rein in Russia.

I’m seeing a lot of grand predictions about a new Cold War between the US and China.  There is definitely one coming eventually.  But now?  Maybe China is that dumb.  But probably not.   If they aren’t dumb, the want … Continue reading

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China Now Owns Russia. But It Doesn’t Want Another North Korea on Its Hands…

If China is rational, they will start pushing Russia to end the war in Ukraine sooner vs later.  This is our single best hope for ending the war quickly.  OK, hope is not a strategy.  But “hope” is not why … Continue reading

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Why a Russian “Collapse” Most Likely Ends the Ukraine War.

It occurred to me (after a conversation with a friend today) that looking for signs of Russian military collapse might come across as wishful thinking.  Perhaps I’m letting sentimental attachment to the Ukrainian cause bias me?   Except that isn’t how … Continue reading

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Putin Will Fight Until His Army or Economy Collapse. Oil Sanctions Will Hasten That. But China Does Not Want a Russian Collapse.

Widespread hope for a negotiated peace in Ukraine looks misplaced.  Most evidence suggests Putin will fight on until the army or economy (or both) collapse.  We can hope collapse comes soon.  The risk is it doesn’t. The US has likely … Continue reading

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No Chinese Military Support for Russia. A Huge Win For US Diplomacy.

At this point, we can tentatively conclude that China is not going to offer that military support Russia asked for last week.  This is a huge win.  Russia is evidently running low on supplies both fancy (missiles) and mundane (rations).  … Continue reading

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Putin’s Headline Grabbing Missile Strikes. Distractions Borne of Desperation?

Why is Putin firing missiles at Western Ukraine? He is so confident in victory he can afford to use up his (diminishing) stocks of super expensive, hard to replace long-range missiles on splashy, high profile, but militarily ineffective pinprick attacks. … Continue reading

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