Subscribe - New Posts Via E-Mail
Beer Money
-
Recent Posts
- Could Be a Hotter Election Than Many Expect. Making the Comfortable Uncomfortable…
- Made In China – Goods Deflation. Also a Low Neutral Interest Rate?
- Will Europe Step Up in Ukraine if the US Steps Back? It Might Do The Right Thing (For Once) and Emerge Transformed (for the Better).
- Early Rate Cuts? Fed’s Powell is a Republican, But is He Pro Trump? My Guess is No…
- Boom Times Ahead? Not Sure I Believe It. But That’s a Simple(st) Economic Explanation for Current Yield Numbers.
Recent Comments
- Robert J Berger on What I Got Wrong On the Debt Ceiling. Pro Wrestling Rot is Deeper than I Thought. Both Encouraging and Worrying.
- Anders Comstedt on We’re Just Getting Poorer. Less “Inflation” Than “Stuff Getting More Expensive.”
- Doc Searls Weblog · The frog of war on Imminent Russian Army Collapse? Actually a Plausible Scenario. “Moscow is Silent.”
- Steve Kamman on Why the Fed “Has” to Cut Rates.
- Dominique Watkins on Why the Fed “Has” to Cut Rates.
Archives
- March 2024
- December 2023
- October 2023
- August 2023
- July 2023
- June 2023
- May 2023
- April 2023
- March 2023
- February 2023
- January 2023
- November 2022
- October 2022
- September 2022
- August 2022
- July 2022
- June 2022
- April 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- March 2021
- January 2021
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- October 2019
- September 2019
- August 2019
- July 2019
- June 2019
- May 2019
- April 2019
- March 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- November 2017
- October 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- January 2017
- November 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- October 2015
- September 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
Categories
Meta
Author Archives: Steve Kamman
Could Be a Hotter Election Than Many Expect. Making the Comfortable Uncomfortable…
Biden may run a more scrappy campaign than people expect. Reflecting on the State of the Union and also this Biden ad (note the portrayals of Trump and make sure you watch beyond “I approved this message”). Biden is (as … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Leave a comment
Made In China – Goods Deflation. Also a Low Neutral Interest Rate?
Adam Tooze piece here inspired me to do a little blogging. See chart below. All that Chinese industrial lending = goods deflation. China is (still) trying to export its way to prosperity. This will be a persistent deflationary force until … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Leave a comment
Will Europe Step Up in Ukraine if the US Steps Back? It Might Do The Right Thing (For Once) and Emerge Transformed (for the Better).
None of the below is a prediction. It is simply a speculation. I’m not foolish enough to “predict” the EU would do the right and courageous thing. But they could always surprise us… There hasn’t been much to say about … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Comments Off on Will Europe Step Up in Ukraine if the US Steps Back? It Might Do The Right Thing (For Once) and Emerge Transformed (for the Better).
Early Rate Cuts? Fed’s Powell is a Republican, But is He Pro Trump? My Guess is No…
In all the commentary around what the Fed will or won’t do, no-one wants to mention that elephant over there in the corner. Does Fed Chair Powell want another 4 years of Donald Trump? Or is he on Team “we’ll … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Comments Off on Early Rate Cuts? Fed’s Powell is a Republican, But is He Pro Trump? My Guess is No…
Boom Times Ahead? Not Sure I Believe It. But That’s a Simple(st) Economic Explanation for Current Yield Numbers.
So we have strong GDP growth, rising real rates, and falling inflation. What is the SIMPLEST explanation for that? High real rates = “strong expected demand for financing” = “strong expected economic growth (driving demand for capital, labor, etc…).” I’m … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Comments Off on Boom Times Ahead? Not Sure I Believe It. But That’s a Simple(st) Economic Explanation for Current Yield Numbers.
What if Xi Jinping just isn’t that competent? Great Read from 2021 that has Aged Well.
The grinding and creaking of structural metal fatigue just keep getting louder behind the Chinese facade. This 2021 post (by a respected econ blogger) has aged very well. Worth a read. Beyond “what he said” I’d add… There is an … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Comments Off on What if Xi Jinping just isn’t that competent? Great Read from 2021 that has Aged Well.
Fiscal Stimulus Is/Was More Powerful Than Many Think.
Is this why the stock market refuses to go down? Also why the economy is seemingly so indifferent to the Fed’s rate-raising campaign? It is probably at least part of the puzzle. Paper is a very quick read – by … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Comments Off on Fiscal Stimulus Is/Was More Powerful Than Many Think.
Ukraine Hasn’t Gotten Lucky… Yet. Prigozhin Got at Little TOO Lucky
Thoughts on Ukraine. WTF was going on with Prigozhin and the whole Wagner coup/mutiny/whatever-it-was? I’ve avoided writing about this because I simply could not figure it out. Nor could anyone else.* We do know this – Prygozhin suffered a “catastrophic … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Comments Off on Ukraine Hasn’t Gotten Lucky… Yet. Prigozhin Got at Little TOO Lucky
Is the Emperor Really Clothed? The Facts Are Pretty Skimpy…
Working on a Ukraine rant, but noting a few “Fed” source pieces here from people more qualified than I am. They also keep looking in vain for fact-based evidence to support the dominant Fed/markets/inflation/liquidity narrative. They don’t replace that simple, … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Comments Off on Is the Emperor Really Clothed? The Facts Are Pretty Skimpy…
The 1990’s Weren’t a Terrible Decade… Maybe We Aren’t Facing an Inflationary (or Deflationary) Bust? Just Sayin’
Two Fed Charts to ponder. Does today’s data rhyme with the… …(cue scary music here) terrible horrible 70’s when inflationary blight stalked the land? …(cue “I want my MTV…”) the 1990’s ? The 1990’s were a pretty good decade. Today’s … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Comments Off on The 1990’s Weren’t a Terrible Decade… Maybe We Aren’t Facing an Inflationary (or Deflationary) Bust? Just Sayin’