TLDR: A simplified guess as to why/how Trump latched onto tariffs this go-around. He wanted to swing a big stick and he found one… No 3D chess here. That ‘a convenient hoo to hang a hubris/nemesis narrative on. If his unilateral tariff actions cause obvious enough economic damage and disruption, even Trump may not be able to shift blame. If low-information voters (finally) tag him with “You broke it, you own it” his magic breaks with it. That a better outcome than 145% tariffs, but still not great. We end up with 3 3/4 years of angry, impotent stasis – Saruman raging from his isolated, lake-bound tower after slow-to-anger ents flush his orc army down the hole he’d dug for himself…
Personal bias alert => I am not OK making common cause with orcs.
Trump’s supporters like to believe he’s playing 3D chess. His actions betray a man playing at the appearance of 3d chess – obfuscating a deeply tactical mind thinking one move ahead.
Putin and Trump play without a clear end-game besides “winning.” Putin eventually over-reached into a Ukraine debacle he can’t (so far) escape. Trump’s tariff move may be a similar follow-your-nose trap.
HUBRIS – Tariffs are the (ahem) big stick Trump always wanted…
In his first term, Trump felt frustrated and stymied by all the legal, constitutional, and bureaucratic constraints of the system. He’s an impulsive, tactical thinker. Checks and balances annoy him.
Some evil henchman found him a new toy “Tariffsss! Bossss!!!! You can act unilaterally with tariffs! Swing as wide and hard as you want. Power! Attention! The whole world must take notice…. Preciousssss!”
Trump likes that idea… So he picks up his new stick and starts swinging it around (“big stick swinging around” is an intentional and appropriate motivating allusion here…). The whole world stands still and pays attention. He likes that even more, so he does more…
NEMESIS – Trump has blind spots around consequences and ownership.
Consequences: The understanding and weighing of consequences demands semi-honest reflection on choices and events leading to some result. Trump doesn’t do “reflection” – honest or otherwise.
Ownership: Why worry about consequences if you’re confident you’ll just shift the blame? In Trump’s experience, consequences can always be dodged… That belief is well founded. He’s a master at shifting blame and bouncing back via bluster and repetition. He’s got out of how many bankruptcies? He came back after Jan 6th…
If tariffs cause enough real-economy disruption, however, Trump may end up carrying consequences he didn’t foresee with ownership he can’t shift. Even the MAGA faithful might be unable to rationalize away Trump standing – bat in hand – amidst shortages, price spikes, canceled 4th of July fireworks, etc…
His lust for unilateral control overcame his instinct for deniability. He’s left himself exposed and alone. Everyone saw him swinging that big stick.
“The President Who Stole Christmas (and 4th of July & Halloween…) The markets expect a pivot soon. But even if he reverses everything tomorrow, tremendous supply chain stress is already working through the system. If he delays a few months, the damage compounds on 2nd-order effects. Think about how fast COVID snarled supply chains and how long that took to sort out. There likely won’t be stimulus checks this go-around…
In Tolkein’s tale, the slow-moving, indifferent-to-politics tree-like ents eventually noticed Saruman’s wanton destruction f their forest… The on-the-ground damage was too obvious. They got angry, killed his orcs, and flooded his tower. Like Trump, Saruman had wizard powers. But angry ents are too big and elemental to magic away…
If Trump’s magic breaks, we’ll be left with an angry, unpredictable, 79 year old man managing a no-longer-loyal 4 seat House majority until 2026. Then a House Democratic majority wielding subpoena power…
An old man raging impotently in his tower is better than wanton destruction, but it isn’t very good.
More complicated I know, but the simplification helps make the point.
