I didn’t think Trump would win the nomination. What did I get wrong?
What did I expect? A wall of Money to coalesce around a single alternative. Probably Rubio. Like one of those ugly goal line football plays. Standing him up and pushing him across the line on mass alone. Probably at the cost of deep voter dis-enthusiasm. The result would have been a similar “battle of the unpopular” we’re seeing now, but with a better chance of success for the Republicans as a whole.
What did I get wrong? I misjudged…
- …The cohesion of the “money wing” of the party. Enlightened self-interest should have led to the scenario above. But they couldn’t coalesce. Which is the clearest sign of the party’s deep fractures and likely fragmentation. I under-estimated how fractured things are.
- …The relative impotence of traditional media. We all know about traditional media’s declining legitimacy and authenticity, but wow! Although I should have figured this out. I can barely stand to track the race except via comedy outlets myself…. Others have made this point better/deeper elsewhere so not going to belabor it.
- …The Boaty McBoatFace phenomena (the joke name a flash-mob “voted” for a British research ship). Part of the general “de-legitimization of the elites” problem. Dis-empowered mobs doing what mobs do when they feel dis-empowered. This is the clearest (and probably only) useful connection between the Brexit vote and the US election. This problem is going to be with us for as long as the Internet is. Its going to be interesting to see how “serious people society” adjust and(eventually, hopefully) cope with this.
- …When Trump would implode. I was pretty sure he would. And his (eventual) disastrous reception by Suburban Republican women was pretty darn obvious. But the narrative shift happened AFTER the nomination, not before. I should have called this given media dynamics etc. But I didn’t.
With that I am going to turn my attention more to other exciting things like Productivity, Fiscal Policy, the Senate Races, what happens after the election, and etc…. The presidential race is pretty done and dusted. The main risk is that consensus leads to lower turnout by the anti-Trump vote. But I think the “no Trump at all costs” voters will still turn up in greater numbers than the “I hate Hillary and maybe Trump isn’t really a racist sociopath” voters… Sigh.