Real Rates Are Now Actually Positive… Probably Good News Although Still Noodling Exactly How

Sometime in August, inflation-adjusted US Treasury yields actually went positive from the 5 years bond out.  Feels like a positive sign, but still gnawing at the puts and takes.  Seemed worth mentioning regardless.

  • The one unquestioned piece of bad news is that our opportunity to have the Chinese PAY US A PROFIT MARGIN on borrowings to rebuild crumbling infrastructure has now passed.
  • The fact that we didn’t take more advantage of that free money is going to go down as one of the most long-term-stupid, self-inflicted wounds of the current political crisis we find ourselves in.

I would show the truly lovely US Treasury charts showing comparative real and nominal rates, but they aren’t willing to share.  Go to

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/Historic-Yield-Data-Visualization.aspx.

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