Monthly Archives: September 2013

Is Larry Summers Iago to Obama’s Othello?

Obama continued interest in nominating Larry Summers to Fed Chairman is doubly worrying.  I think Summers is a bad choice.  But it also points to Obama’s isolation and (persistently) flawed managerial skillset.  Two things seem clear about Larry Summers.  We’ve … Continue reading

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Real Rates Are Now Actually Positive… Probably Good News Although Still Noodling Exactly How

Sometime in August, inflation-adjusted US Treasury yields actually went positive from the 5 years bond out.  Feels like a positive sign, but still gnawing at the puts and takes.  Seemed worth mentioning regardless. The one unquestioned piece of bad news … Continue reading

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(Part 2) Bernanke a Behavioral Econ Genius? Rate Spike A Stimulus?

More on Bernanke’s seemingly willful effort to talk up long-term rates with his tapering speech this summer?  It seems clear he wanted a steeper yield curve, with longer-term rates up by about 1/3 versus last year.  Two potential explanations: He Wanted … Continue reading

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Bernanke a Behavioral Econ Genius? Was the Rate Spike A Stimulus? (Part 1)

I have been trying to understand Bernanke’s seemingly willful effort to talk up long-term rates with his tapering speech this summer?  Was he dead set of repeating Japan’s mistakes?  Losing his will?   Burnishing his legacy? Maybe it was a … Continue reading

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MSFT Now Selling Shiny Black Rectangles! Who Wins? Who Really Cares?

Microsoft bought Nokia!  Yawn!  They get some nifty patents, but are still stuck trying to compete with free.  As is Apple.  It is tough to compete with free…  Nuff said. One of the smartest career (and personal) moves I ever … Continue reading

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The Incredible Shrinking Budget Deficit… Wow.

Posting this chart mostly because it shocked me.  I knew the US budget deficit is falling, but I didn’t know it had fallen this fast or this far.   Chart is deficit as a % of GDP.  I am pretty confident … Continue reading

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Verizon/Vodafone Wireless Deal a Bad Thing For VZ Suppliers (and Customers)

Verizon has acquired full control of Verizon Wireless from partner Vodafone for $130b.  Vodafone’s Suppliers will do well from its $10b “Project Spring” investment program.  I’m hoping a chunk goes to core optical network supplier Infinera (my largest individual stock … Continue reading

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Why the “Winners” In Cloud Infrastucture Will Be Financial Losers

“If we are victorious in one more battle with the Romans, we shall be utterly ruined.” – King Pyrrhus (apocryphal):  “A Pyrrhic victory is a victory with such a devastating cost that it is tantamount to defeat. Someone who wins a Pyrrhic victory has … Continue reading

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Why Juniper Should Hire Basil Alwan as CEO

I have this recurring nightmare that Juniper’s CEO short list is made up of Mark Hurd, Carly Fiorina, Leo Apotheker, and Steve Ballmer. But I have faith Juniper’s board is smarter than HP or Microsoft’s. Admittedly a low bar. The … Continue reading

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