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Author Archives: Steve Kamman
Why are We Risking Catastrophe To Avert a Non-Crisis?
We risk another 2008-style crisis. Is that really preferable to 3%-4% inflation for a year or two longer than we’d like? Even that is a false choice – ignoring all the other tools we have to fight inflation (that … Continue reading
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“Higher For Longer” Is Now “Not Much Higher, Then We Cut.” The Fed Won’t Kill Its Children.
What a weekend to be locked out of your own blog account! A bit of a grab bag of thoughts here – sorry for some repetition…. Silicon Valley Bank has taken us from from “higher [rates] for longer” to “not … Continue reading
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What if the Ukraine War Ends Sooner vs Later? Energy Edition.
I am not an energy expert by any means. Nor am I a Ukraine expert. So why not look at them both? 🙂 At least I can ask some relevant questions even if I can’t fully answer them. I believe … Continue reading
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What is the Sound of One Fed Clapping? A Zen Koan re: Economy & Markets.
This excellent Axios piece (pasted in below) gives us our Zen koan for the day. Investors hang on every last word out of the Fed. The real economy doesn’t give a sh*t Which is… “reality?” As a bonus, one of … Continue reading
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Has Ukraine Already Won? Kinda Sorta Yes?
Two days after Russia invaded Ukraine, I wrote “Putin is already Losing in Ukraine.” Even back then, it was already pretty obvious. Whatever emerged from the war, it would not be a Russian “victory.” Putin has lost more and more … Continue reading
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Another Path to Fed Rate Cuts – “Not with a Bang But a Whimper.”
As headline inflation numbers come down, the Fed is going to find it harder to justify high short-term interest rates. Especially if most economic sectors are holding up well in the face of that moderating inflation. Double-especially if the most … Continue reading
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The Fed Will Cut Rates? Why? Politics. OK, When? Before The Commercial Real Estate Market Cracks…
Summary: It will get super awkward if the labor market holds up too well while the CRE market starts to go into a too-visible tailspin. The Fed will have to cut rates. The Fed won’t want to look like it … Continue reading
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Why Push to Destroy The Russian Army If They Will Come to Do The Job Themselves? A New Ukraine End-Game Scenario.
Something has definitely shifted in Ukraine. The West has clearly decided Ukraine can and should win militarily. We’ve seen all sorts of taboos lifted in the last few weeks. Although maybe it is just that Ukraine is now running out … Continue reading
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Shocked! Shocked to Discover a Political Agenda Behind the “Technocratic” Fed-Centric Economic Narrative
Why, politically, do we insist our only economic tool must be a bludgeon? Why ignore a whole array of more precise, more effective alternative instruments? I’m talking about simple effectiveness here, not my personal politics. But politics are exactly why … Continue reading
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The Cure for High Prices is… High Prices. Team Transitory Winning After All.
This whole inflation episode has two competing narratives. Only one can win. It is looking more and more like “Team Transitory/Real Economy” is going to crush “Team Money Printing/Fed-Uber-Alles.” The PCE inflation, consumption, and GDP numbers all point in that … Continue reading
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